Get Ready Week... underway already

OK, so we're a bit early... that's typical of us though!

This year's theme for Get Ready Week (formerly known as Disaster Awareness Week) is tsunami. That fits nicely with the national tsunami exercise on the 20th October. New banners have been made for our AirShelter and a CDEM Group tsunami brochure prepared and printed. We've bought survival items to display in the AirShelter and have the new video interviews with Kiwis who survived the Samoa earthquake and tsunami last year.

Next thing you know, Canterbury have a massive earthquake and a significant civil defence response. Closer to home, we have more than our fair share of rain resulting in evacuations, flood gate operations and an awful lot of soggy ground! We've now operated the new Makino and Moutoa flood control gates twice in two weeks. I think its a good guess that people will have questions about earthquakes and floods while we are out there in the community.

To help answer some of the questions, we dusted off the earthquake cubes from a couple of years ago. Each cube in the display (numbered 4-8) represents the amount of energy released in an earthquake. The very small cube represents a Richter scale 4 event and the big cube a Richter scale 8. We'll also be printing off some more Makino brochures for the Fielding display.

The Get Ready Week roadshow is in the following places...

5-7 October Levin at Horowhenua District Council

8 October Feilding in the Square

11 October Taihape New World

12 October Marton New World and Ohakune District Council Service Centre

13 October Palmerston North in the Square

14 October Danevirke at the Warehouse

15 October Wanganui as part of the Health Wellbeing and Fitness expo at the Memorial Hall

Ministry publishes tsunami videos

On 29 September 2009 a deadly tsunami hit the South Pacific, claiming over 180 lives in Samoa, Tonga and American Samoa. The tsunami was triggered by an 8.3 magnitude earthquake at 06:48, just south of Samoa, and arrived within minutes. There was no time for an official warning. Many lives were saved because people recognised the natural warning signs of a tsunami and were able to get away quickly to a safe area.

In these video clips, New Zealanders who survived the tsunami share their experiences in the hope that it will help others have a better understanding of what happens during a tsunami, and how acting quickly can save lives.

Tsunami - When minutes count: Part 1

Tsunami - When minutes count: Part 2

There are more video interviews on the MCDEM website here.

Tsunami Strategy and Action Plans

A small team of Emergency Managers from within the Manawatu-Wanganui CDEM Group are beavering away on the first draft of our Group's Tsunami Strategy and Action Plans. This will document a consistent approach to tsunami response for the Group and will form the basis for consultation with communities that are potentially affected by tsunami run-up.

Run-up modelling has been undertaken for the Group by GNS Science and this is the foundation for the Plan. The zones shown in the picture are indicative of evacuation zones. The Red Zone is the beach and is obviously the area most at risk from tsunami (even small ones). The Orange Zone is likely to be affected by tsunami with a 500yr return period and the Yellow Zone by 2500yr return events.

In real terms, a 500yr tsunami off shore is likely to be between 2.2 and 3.1m (east coast) but when it reaches the beach, this could double in height. This means potentially 6.2m in height. An added margin for safety therefore sees the Orange Evacuation Zone for our east coast being set at the 10m contour. Attenuation has also been calculated at 0.5% = 1m less wave height for every 200m inland.

The 500yr event for Wanganui onshore height is 7.2m, the 2500yr event for our east coast is 35m and for Wanganui is 15.6m. 35m is a pretty big jump in sea level and an event of this magnitude would be massively destructive all around New Zealand.

The team will keep working on the project and we intend to test the Plan during national Exercise Tangaroa in October.

GNS Science tsunami survey

GNS Science are seeking feedback on the Chilean tsunami impacts on New Zealand:

Our tsunami survey

We'd like to hear about your experiences, as well as see any of your tsunami photos and video.

We have set up an online questionnaire that we'd really like you to fill out for us. It will only take about two minutes of your time: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/W35LZK2

We've also set up a GeoNet Facebook page for you to share your thoughts, photos and video. In your web browser, please go to http://www.facebook.com/, login and search for 'geonet'or just follow this link: http://tinyurl.com/geonet-fb-page

If you have any tsunami-related videos or photos already posted to places like YouTube and Flickr, it would be very useful if you could "tag" them with the word 'geonet' so we can locate them easily.

Why are we doing it?

The last time that New Zealand was affected by a South American tsunami was in 1960, so these are uncommon events. This makes it a valuable opportunity to compile data, observations, photos and videos to better understand the effects across the nation. The knowledge of what tsunami have done to New Zealand in the past helps to verify the computer simulations we are now able to perform. This Chilean tsunami is another opportunity for us to add to that long-term knowledge.

Group ECC activation

The Manawatu-Wanganui CDEM Group's Emergency Co-ordination Centre and Tararua Emergency Operations Centre were both activated for the tsunami response over the weekend. There was plenty of lead time for this event albeit with the waves first arriving reasonably early on Sunday morning. The Group response was similar to that for the Samoa event however evacuations were not recommended. All arrangements and personnel were in place to respond if evacuations were considered necessary after observations had been made at the Chatham Islands. In the end the community opted to move away from the foreshore and did so in quite an orderly fashion.

The Akitio webcam was adjusted to increase the refresh rate from about hourly to every minute. This gave us a good idea of sea conditions and whether there were people around. It's nice to actually use the camera for its intended purpose. We also kept a close eye on the GeoNet de-tided gauge (which is still showing signs of tsunami slosh today [yes that's my technical terminology]).

We did have a few problems updating the text on our webpage - but we're working on that. We also received an overwhelming number of e-mails and attachments. I think the introduction of the EMIS will go a long way to improving the sharing of information between Groups and MCDEM and minimising the number of e-mails that I'll just mark as read.

All-in-all, a much better effort on the public front this time. Still a number of operational improvements that can be made (and we're working on that). Here's an animation of wave propagation that you might like.

My view - tsunami reports

Both the internal and external reviews of the response to the Samoa earthquake and tsunami were released on Friday. The internal review is an honest attempt by MCDEM to improve internal systems and procedures. It doesn't really attempt to look at the wider CDEM sector and recommend improvements for the entire response. I guess that's fair enough although I do think MCDEM underestimate their sphere of influence sometimes.

There have been discussions within the Ministry about re-activating the Tsunami Working Group to help work through recommendations in a consultative manner - good on you MCDEM.

On the other hand... the external review is a waste of time. Not only does the report not address the questions raised in the terms of reference, it was whipped out in short order with unrealistic consultation. For example, the CDEM Groups and NZ Fire Service were not consulted but the National Foundation for the Deaf was - I just don't get that, especially when one of the points was to focus on the 'use of information and distribution of warnings, advisories and messages at the local level'.

The main focus was on public information and all of the sub-areas were to have this slant - but surely local use refers to how successful the Group and Local Public Information Managers and local media were at relaying critical advise and information to the affected communities? Sorry guys but this whopping 5-page report just doesn't cut the mustard.

The internal review is available here, and the external review here.

Review of CDEM tsunami alerts process

I'm sure by now you've heard the there are two reviews underway following the response to the Samoa earthquake and tsunami. The first of these reviews is an internal review of MCDEM responses. I guess this is similar to the reviews many of us did to double check procedures and arrangements and to implement any opportunities for improvement identified.

The second review has been requested by the Minister. The following information was drawn from the Beehive website:

Civil Defence Minister John Carter has asked for a review into how the Civil Defence and Emergency Management ministry deals with tsunami alerts.

"Generally, the response to yesterday's tsunami warning was pretty good, but there are concerning reports about the ways in which some information was communicated to the public. Frankly, that is not good enough," says Mr Carter.

"Public confidence in Civil Defence is critical. There are always lessons we can learn from events such as these and I am determined to ensure we do learn from them."

Mr Carter says co-ordination between the national Civil Defence headquarters and regional operations went largely to plan, and it is usual for regional civil defence controllers to manage warnings in their own areas, because what works in one area may not work in another.

"For example, some places have cell phone coverage and some don't. That's why it's important regional controllers are able to make their own calls on their own patch.

"However, I think Civil Defence weren't as helpful as they could have been in communicating with the media in the early stages and I am also concerned about reports saying places like Wellington Airport didn't get timely information. We have to sort that out," Mr Carter says.

It was with some surprise yesterday that I learned that the review is complete and that none of the CDEM Groups present at our meeting yesterday had been consulted as part of the review... we'll read the report with interest before making comment.

My view - tsunami response

Well, what a week! There have been quite a few accusations in the media about the NZ response to the earthquake and tsunami from Samoa. I have also been (accurately) reported in regional and national newspapers and there has been some discussion on radio about our ability to respond. I'd like to put the record straight.

The Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management (MCDEM) is NZs official tsunami warning agency. They receive advice from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) in Hawaii. MCDEM then analyses the information from PTWC to determine the impact on NZ coastlines and if appropriate issues a warning to agencies and CDEM Groups as well as the media.

The media is a multi-billion dollar communications industry that emergency managers should be collaborating with when it comes to intelligence gathering. They can get accurate information and images incredibly fast - there is no way we can replicate that (or would even want to). Media obviously receive the PTWC warning and broadcast these without an analysis of potential local impact so can do this in near-real time. I subscribe to the PTWC warnings and also the Global Disaster Alert and Co-ordination System warnings. In this case the first I knew was Paul Henry announcing it on Breakfast TV. The PTWC and GDACS warnings are also linked from the sidebar in this blog.

MCDEM has been clear that there are three levels of warning - natural where you feel the earthquake or see the sea rushing out (or rushing in), unofficial - media, family, friends and official warnings also promulgated via the media and agencies. The public are encouraged to react in an appropriate manner regardless of how they were alerted to the problem.

So what did we do as a Group? EOCs at Tararua and Horizons were activated. Horizons undertook the local response for Horowhenua, Manawatu and Rangitikei without the need to activate local EOCs for the initial response. Police and Fire were present in the Horizons EOC and assisted in decision making and response. SMS messages were sent to agencies via our WebSMS and the public via the Manawatu OPTN system.

Tararua undertook an evacuation of Akitio and Herbertville and a helicopter swept the coastline looking for people on the beach. Horizons had initiated a helicopter sweep of the west coast and ground crews from Fire were deployed to stop people going to the beach. The west coast flight was cancelled before it was completed as the warning cancellation was received from MCDEM.

If that's where it stopped, that would have been an excellent response! Unfortunately there was a fly in the ointment. Some SMS message were delayed in transmission - so here's the guts...

OPTN is a public service that subscribers pay for. We had about 358 people subscribed to the service. This was set up by Manawatu following the 2004 floods and had seen very little use since. Once public complaints started coming in of messages being received hours late and the local media contacted us to find out what was going on, I spoke with the company and advised that this is a level of service we could not support for public notifications.

WebSMS is a service we pay for. The company is based in Melbourne and they handled several hundred messages for us that day. We use this to advise agencies and not the public. There were also some significant delays in this service. Again, I've contacted the company to find out if its a service provider problem - but no. The messages were processed quickly (seconds to a few minutes) through their system to the NZ carriers. The delay unfortunately sits with the telcos in NZ.

I also experienced delays the following day when texting with my family - up to six hours in some cases (I'm sure we've all experienced that).

So what's the main lesson for me??? In future, we will be including the date time in the body of the message that goes out to an agency - this will use up space but will provide a check if a message is late in delivery. It has been our policy for a while now that warnings are passed to agencies verbally and that e-mail, fax and SMS messages are for heads-up and detail.

A full debrief of our response is being undertaken next week and a report will be sent to MCDEM and our Co-ordinating Executive Group.

Mass evacuation

This is not something we do after church!

The Director's Guide on mass evacuation planning has just been received by the Group and circulated to local EMOs. I am expecting the tsunami run-up modelling results through in the next few days and the two of these projects sit nicely together. We have received some test data from GNS to make sure that our system can cope with the format they have produced the models in (and it can).

It won't be too long before we can sit down and develop a strategic approach to tsunami risk response for the Group. If you would like a copy of the Mass Evacuation Planning Guide, it can be found here.

Tsunami pilot project

For several months now we've been working with GNS Science to undertake some modelling of our regional coasts. Manawatu-Wanganui CDEM Group, Wellington and Northland are all taking part in a pilot project based on the nationally agreed guidelines for tsunami run-up modelling and evacuation zone development. Part of the delay in being able to do the modelling has been waiting for agreement on the national standard.

The Ministry roadshow on tsunami activities attracted a good crowd in Palmerston North this week and Dr. Graham Leonard gave a few of us a sneak preview of some of the modelling for the region. In the next few weeks, we can expect to receive the report that will describe expected areas of inundation for tsunami events on our coasts. This information will be used to inform the decisions about evacuation zones, routes, safe areas, warning procedures etc. etc. etc.

A big chunk of work will be taking this report to the communities potentially affected by tsunami and discussing how the community would like to handle the response. Some work undertaken by Northland has set an excellent example for our Group to follow, so we will take their lessons and use them to the advantage of our communities.

We'll keep you posted of developments.

MCDEM Tsunami Information Seminar

You will be aware of the importance the current Government has placed on the tsunami threat over recent times. The Ministry and a number of Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups have committed to a variety of programmes aimed at improving New Zealand’s resilience to this threat.

A great deal of work has been completed under the auspices of the Tsunami Working Group nationally and the Ministry is committed to a programme of updating the widest spectrum of the CDEM sector on the progress of such projects as tsunami warning systems, signage and research. These seminars will also include updates on related areas such as Evacuation Guidelines and 2^nd generation planning for CDEM Groups and its constituent members.

The objectives for the programme are :

1. To inform Groups of tools for tsunami risk management

2. To encourage group planning for tsunami

As part of the national rollout of these seminars (there will be six nationally) MCDEM invite the widest spectrum of our Group membership to a seminar to be conducted on the 26^th June 2008 at the Palmerston North Convention Centre, Gallery Room, 354 Main St, Palmerston North between the hours of 0930 and 1330. We anticipate the attendance of all members of the Group, the CEG and a wide selection of CDEM stakeholders i.e. Regional/District hazard planners, emergency services etc. MCDEM will precede the seminar with tea/coffee and conclude with the provision of a light lunch.

Members of the Manawatu-Wanganui CDEM Group are requested to confirm attendance by e-mail to keith.evans@dia.govt.nz